Development and validation of a prediction model for tocilizumab failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this secondary analysis of the TESEO cohort is to identify, early in the course of treatment with tocilizumab, factors associated with the risk of progressing to mechanical ventilation and death and develop a risk score to estimate the risk of this outcome according to patients' profile. METHODS: Patients with COVID-19 severe pneumonia receiving standard of care + tocilizumab who were alive and free from mechanical ventilation at day 6 after treatment initiation were included in this retrospective, multicenter cohort study. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of mechanical ventilation or death by day-28 from treatment initiation and ß-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Secondary outcome was mortality. Patients with the same inclusion criteria as the derivation cohort from 3 independent hospitals were used as validation cohort. RESULTS: 266 patients treated with tocilizumab were included. By day 28 of hospital follow-up post treatment initiation, 40 (15%) underwent mechanical ventilation or died [26 (10%)]. At multivariable analysis, sex, day-4 PaO2/FiO2 ratio, platelets and CRP were independently associated with the risk of developing the study outcomes and were used to generate the proposed risk score. The accuracy of the score in AUC was 0.80 and 0.70 in internal validation and test for the composite endpoint and 0.92 and 0.69 for death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our score could assist clinicians in identifying, early after tocilizumab administration, patients who are likely to progress to mechanical ventilation or death, so that they could be selected for eventual rescue therapies.

Neurological manifestations in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: A retrospective analysis from a large cohort in Northern Italy.

SARS-CoV2 infection is a systemic disease that may involve multiple organs, including the central nervous system (CNS). Aims of our study are to describe prevalence and clinical features of neurological manifestations, mortality and hospital discharge in subjects hospitalized with COVID-19. All individuals admitted for to our hospital COVID-19 were retrospectively included. Patients were classified according to the symptoms at hospital entry in (1) isolated respiratory, (2) combined respiratory and neurologic, (3) isolated neurologic and (4) stroke manifestations. Descriptive statistics and nonparametric tests to compare the groups were calculated. Kaplan Meier probability curves and multivariable Cox regression models for survival and hospital discharge were applied. The analysis included 901 patients: 42.6% showed a severe or critical disease with an overall mortality of 21.2%. At least one neurological symptom or disease was observed in 30.2% of subjects ranging from dysgeusia/anosmia (9.1%) to postinfective diseases (0.8%). Patients with respiratory symptoms experienced a more severe disease and a higher in-hospital mortality compared to those who showed only neurologic symptoms. Kaplan Meier estimates displayed a statistically significant different survival among groups (p = 0.003): subjects with stroke had the worst. After adjusting for risk factors such as age, sex and comorbidity, individuals with isolated neurologic manifestations exhibited a better survival (aHR 0.398, 95% CI [0.206, 0.769], p = 0.006). Neurologic manifestations in COVID-19 are common but heterogeneous and mortality in subjects with isolated neurologic manifestations seems lower than in those with respiratory symptoms.

Preliminary observations on IGRA testing for TB infection in patients with severe COVID-19 eligible for immunosuppressive therapy.

COVID-19, the novel coronavirus pandemic, has already spread around the globe affecting more than 18 million people. As previously observed with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 deeply dysregulate the immune system eliciting respiratory failure and a state of systemic hyperinflammation in severely ill individuals. Immunotherapy is often used to downgrade the detrimental effects of the disease sustained by high-level of cytokines. Those treatments, however, are known to undermine patients' ability to contain tuberculosis (TB) infection. This study aims to describe interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) results in severe COVID-19 patients eligible for immunosuppressive treatment. Aggregate data were gathered from five hospitals in Milan, Italy, from March 1 to May 15, 2020 and retrospectively analyses. Results were summarized using absolute frequencies and percentages and compared using a two-sided Chi-squared test. Overall, 462 COVID-19 patients were eligible for immunosuppressive therapy, among which 335 were tested using IGRA testing. More than one-third of them (122/335; 36.4%) had an indeterminate IGRA result because of insufficient immune response to mitogen control, 19 (5.7%) tested positive and 194 (57.9) negative. The majority of patients with lymphocytopenia (i.e., total lymphocyte count [TLC] below 1000 cells/mm3) had indeterminate IGRAs (81/155; 52.3%). The proportion becomes even higher in patients with severe lymphocytopenia (i.e., TLC<500 cells/mm3) (36/57; 63%). Our results suggest a possible negative impact of COVID-19 related immune dysregulation on TB infection assessment and management. Close monitoring of individuals with or without retesting of individuals with indeterminate IGRAs and further basic science investigations should to be sought to better comprehend their implication on TB epidemiology.

Effectiveness of infection-containment measures on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and circulation from May to July 2020, in Milan, Italy.

OBJECTIVE: Through a hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 molecular and serological screening, we evaluated the effectiveness of two months of lockdown and two of surveillance, in Milan, Lombardy, the first to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 pandemics during March-April 2020. METHODS: All subjects presenting at the major hospital of Milan from May-11 to July-5, 2020, underwent a serological screening by chemiluminescent assays. Those admitted were further tested by RT-PCR. RESULTS: The cumulative anti-N IgG seroprevalence in the 2753 subjects analyzed was of 5.1% (95%CI = 4.3%-6.0%), with a peak of 8.4% (6.1%-11.4%) 60-63 days since the peak of diagnoses (March-20). 31/106 (29.2%) anti-N reactive subjects had anti-S1/S2 titers >80 AU/mL. Being tested from May-18 to June-5, or residing in the provinces with higher SARS-CoV-2 circulation, were positively and independently associated with anti-N IgG reactivity (OR [95%CI]: 2.179[1.455-3.264] and 3.127[1.18-8.29], respectively). In the 18 RT-PCR positive, symptomatic subjects, anti-N seroprevalence was 33.3% (95% CI: 14.8%-56.3%). CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Milan is low, and in a downward trend after only 60-63 days since the peak of diagnoses. Italian confinement measures were effective, but the risk of contagion remains concrete. In hospital-settings, the performance of molecular and serological screenings upon admission remains highly advisable.

Safety and efficacy of anti-il6-receptor tocilizumab use in severe and critical patients affected by coronavirus disease 2019: A comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: As the novel SARS-CoV-2 pandemic occurred, no specific treatment was yet available. Inflammatory response secondary to viral infection might be the driver of severe diseases. We report the safety and efficacy (in terms of overall survival and hospital discharge) of the anti-IL6 tocilizumab (TCZ) in subjects with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective, single-center analysis included all the patients consecutively admitted to our Hospital with severe or critical COVID-19 who started TCZ treatment from March 13th to April 03rd, 2020. A 1:2 matching to patients not treated with TCZ was performed according to age, sex, severity of disease, P/F, Charlson Comorbidity Index and length of time between symptoms onset and hospital admittance. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests to compare the groups were applied. Kaplan Meier probability curves and Cox regression models for survival, hospital discharge and orotracheal intubation were used. RESULTS: Seventy-four patients treated with TCZ were matched with 148 matched controls. They were mainly males (81.5%), Caucasian (82.0%) and with a median age of 59 years. The majority (69.8%) showed critical stage COVID-19 disease. TCZ use was associated with a better overall survival (HR 0.499 [95% CI 0.262-0.952], p = 0.035) compared to controls but with a longer hospital stay (HR 1.658 [95% CI 1.088-2.524], p = 0.019) mainly due to biochemical, respiratory and infectious adverse events. DISCUSSION: TCZ use resulted potentially effective on COVID-19 in terms of overall survival. Caution is warranted given the potential occurrence of adverse events. FINANCIAL SUPPORT: Some of the tocilizumab doses used in the subjects included in this analysis were provided by the "Multicenter study on the efficacy and tolerability of tocilizumab in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia" (EudraCT Number: 2020-001110-38) supported by the Italian National Agency for Drugs (AIFA). No specific funding support was planned for study design, data collection and analysis and manuscript writing of this paper.